Why Harris Wins
Turnout, Sanity, Republican Racism, Women
Turnout 2024
“It’s all about turnout” is a joke meme among campaign veterans. Yeah, duh, you’ve got to get your people out to vote but most elections are not so close that 63% participation by likely Democratic voters vs. 62% of likely Republican voters will determine the outcome -- because many voters are independents and some Democrats will vote for a Republican nominee and vice versa.
It is far more often the case that economic conditions, foreign entanglements, mood of the country, qualities of the candidates, etc. determine the outcome. They matter more than Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts.
Not this year.
If the polls are correct this is the closest presidential election since Kennedy – Nixon in 1960. Kennedy won 49.72% to Nixon’s 49.55%. In the critical state of Illinois Kennedy won by 8,858 votes. Nixon’s representatives and allies contested the results investigations were launched. and lawsuits filed. The more things change …
The Harris-Walz campaign and related groups have developed the best GOTV operation in history. Trump and the Republican Party have invested more in developing ways to dispute and overturn the results of the election. It’s almost as if they’ve become enemies of democracy.
As I learned at canvassing headquarters in Wilkes-Barre the Harris campaign has 50 field offices and over 400 paid staff in PA. Harris has raised over a billion dollars and has put a lot of it into grassroots organizing. They’ve also used funds to pay for advertising online, even on video game platforms. Gamers can be strolling through their game landscape and find a Harris for president sign. What is reality?
And GOTV goes way beyond the campaign. American Bridge 21st Century, a data driven strategic group that places paid advertising for top level and down ballot campaigns, is spending $200,000 to text Puerto Rican voters (in PA, MI and WI) about the racist remarks about the island delivered at a recent Donald Trump rally. This kind of rapid response and tactical pivot is what Democrats and progressive allies have been building over the past four years.
Candidate Favorability
Trump is a malignant narcissist > someone who has both narcissistic personality disorder and antisocial personality disorder. These character defects are frighteningly obvious. His dishonesty is pathological. He is a racist and a rapist. He has no empathy.
In other words, he’s an asshole.
Most Americans see this. Some will vote for him anyway, because they think he’s a good businessman (lol) and will be good for the economy. Some think he’s tough (again) and will protect U.S. interests, (and to be fair, unlike the neocons Trump does not seem eager to commit U.S. troops in a voluntary war). Some will vote for Trump because of the immigration crisis despite his killing the border security bill, and some will support him because they really, really want a tax cut even though it won’t help them (and they don’t know that) or because it will, and the summer home needs a new roof.
Others love Trump because they are authoritarian personality types, as first outlined by Erich Fromm and Theodore Adorno. These folks are disposed to treat authority figures, including employers, with unquestioning obedience and respect. Adorno argued that they are primed for a fascist movement.
But authoritarian personality types are a minority in our population and for the others, it’s difficult to vote for an asshole. And that’s why many will vote for a very different kind of person.
Kamala Harris is an attractive, articulate and joyful person. She projects warmth and positive energy. Trump exudes resentment, rage and ill-will.
We have to live with a president’s energy and see their face regularly, even daily. Advantage Harris.
Let’s check on polling average of favorability ratings (from fivethirtyeight.com)
Favorable/Unfavorable %
Harris 46.3. 47.8. Trump 43.6. 52.0
Republican Racism:
A memo from the GOP National Committee:
You’re saying it out loud. Loudly. You can’t say it out loud!
Even in a roomful of fat cats or rednecks. Some of the fat cats are black now!And lots of them are Indian, not the woo-woo kind – although somehow, we need to get control of those casinos. Even a baboon would get rich owning one of those.
And some of the rednecks are seriously anti-racist – no, they’re not just being politically correct. They really mean it. They listen to Willie Nelson and guys like that. And Puerto Ricans vote -they’re citizens, did you not know that? Puerto Ricans on the island can’t vote, of course, but Puerto Ricans in the 50 states can, and they usually don’t vote for us!
And there are hot mics and busboys with secret recorders and everything.
Don’t put that stuff in writing a la email or text and no racial comments on the Instagram, Facebook or Tictac. A wink and a nod, fellas – that’s it.
Gender and Education
Trump: “Whether the women like it or not. I am going to protect them.”
That’s a little tone deaf, honestly.
Polling shows an enormous gender/education gap (college = college grad) (Pew Research, reported in NYT, 10/30/24)
Non-college men: Trump +16. Non-college women: Trump+4. College men: Harris +7. College women: Harris +27
College grads are 40% of the voting age population.
The math works like this > multiplying candidate advantage by % of voters in each group supporting that candidate = electoral strength.
Trump .6 (16 +4) = 120 Harris .4 (7+27) = 136.
Advantage Harris. And there’s more.
College graduates have higher rates of voter participation than non-college grads. Women have higher rates of voter participation than men.
How will this particular election play out? In other words, who do you think are more motivated to vote? Men or women?
So, who runs the election?
*******
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Just getting to this.
Kudos, Well crafted, Jim! Let it be so. I do think that Trump’s appeal is all of what you mentioned & also on a basic emotional level he tunes into what people are feeling AND they feel seen, they belong to a process they have felt left out of. Not sure the impact is that is fully captured in polls.
There still is hope!!